September 14, 2022
The Quebec Election is in less than 20 days and a new weekly Canada Polling projection is out.
Ridings to Watch:
Beauce-Nord & Beauce-Sud
Polls have shown since the last election that the CAQ would win a decisive victory. Recent projections have started to point to how the Conservative Party of Quebec will affect the election results. The Conservatives have started gaining large amounts of support all across the province. On a good day, they could easily land 2nd place in vote share and become the 3rd Opposition Party. On a bad day, they could also easily get 3rd or 4th in vote share and win 0 seats in the National Assembly.
This recent uptick in support for the Conservatives has led to the CAQ losing large batches of support in more rural areas of Quebec that vote Conservative federally. Most notably in the ridings of Beauce-Nord and Beauce-Sud.
In Beauce-Nord the CAQ won with 66.4% with the Conservatives at 4.7%. Beauce-Sud had similar results with the CAQ at 62.7% and Conservatives at 2.5%.
Current Canada Polling projections have the Conservatives winning with around 35-40% and the CAQ winning around 35%. Both Beauce seats are currently a tossup and will be some of the most focused on in the election on October 3rd.
Chauveau
Chauveau is another riding of note in this election. The Leader of the Conservative Party is running in that electoral district. It's the first seat that showed major signs of a potential flip to the Conservative Party. It's currently held by the CAQ.
The CAQ won Chauveau in 2018 with 47.1%. The Conservatives got 8.6% with their previous leader in the seat. Currently, Canada Polling has projected Chauveau to go to the Conservatives with around 40% and the CAQ going down to about 30-35%.
Bonaventure
Bonaventure is a good example of the general collapse of Parti Québécois support. The Parti Québécois currently has 7 Members in the National Assembly. In the worst case, they could fall to 1. A best case could land anywhere from 3-10 seats. Parti Québécois supporters in particularly the Côte-Nord Region have flocked to the CAQ and more recently some have gone to the Conservative Party.
Bonaventure is a riding south of the PQ stronghold of Matane-Matapédia which is their only safe seat. It has particularly flip-flopped between the CAQ and the PQ although it has had a history and has trended to possibly going to the Liberals although it's gotten less likely as the election nears.
Bonaventure has continued staying as a very close tossup in Canada Polling projections and either the CAQ or PQ will very likely win with less than 30%.
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne is a Montréal seat held by the Leader of the Liberal Party. It's been inching closer and closer to a possible CAQ flip. It has been Liberal since its creation in 1994 and the ridings that merged to form it have been Liberal since 1981. A CAQ flip in an area that has been Liberal for over 40 years will be historic.
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne connects to the Liberal fall in the province of Quebec. Typically on Montréal Island, the Liberals have a very tight grip on the seats, especially in the south of the Island. Recently the CAQ has been able to crack into support on Montréal Island which directly affects a riding such as Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne that isn't as locked in as some others.
Another factor in Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne is the support for Québec Solidaire. QS has a lot of support on Montréal and Laval but it's consistent and not enough to win seats. In Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne QS has been floating around 27%. Since the last election, the Liberals have been declining in the seat going from 38% to 28%. The CAQ has gone from 19% to 30%.
The CAQ has been projected to win the seat in our modelling since mid-August. It's difficult to project the seat because of the fact the Leader of the Opposition & Liberal Party is in Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne but the CAQ is expected to win with 30%, Liberals at 28% and QS at 25%.
Overall these ridings are going to be ones I'm going to watch closely on Election Day and I do plan on writing more about these seats as we get closer to October 3.
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