September 20, 2022
A new weekly Canada Polling projection is out with only 2 weeks left in the campaign.
In the previous post, I covered some of the most watched ridings in this election as there was only the daily polling from Mainstreet. Recently though there are some new polls to look at. Mainstreet has typically been more friendly to the Conservatives in Québec than other polls since their emergence onto polling. A recent Léger poll has helped balance out some of that bias.
Quebec Wide since July 19:
Political Party | Léger Average | Mainstreet Average |
CAQ | 41.33% | 39.82% |
Liberal | 17.67% | 18.05% |
QS | 15.67% | 11.55% |
Conservative | 14.00% | 18.73% |
PQ | 10.00% | 8.45% |
Other | 1.50% | 4.05% |
*Mainstreet has been doing daily polls so there are many more polls included for the Mainstreet Average compared to the Léger Average*
This large difference in polling has made it difficult to project. Léger has been historically more accurate so following it more is the better choice. The large difference in QS support is very odd to see in particular though as the difference in polling from Léger to Mainstreet was very little in the last election.
Montréal
A Léger/Montreal Gazette poll was released on the 10th of September and highlighted the support in Montréal & Laval for each party.
Whether the party leaders like it or not the election result will still come down to Montréal & Laval. A bad result for the CAQ in Montréal & Laval could reduce them to less than 90 seats while a good one could lead them to over 100. If Léger continues its good projections and hopes for the QS this could allow for vote splitting between the Liberals and QS causing CAQ wins in more seats on the islands. Some good examples of this are the ridings of:
Mille-Îles
Laval-des-Rapides
Maurice-Richard
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
Verdun
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
La Pinière (Montérégie)
Laporte (Montérégie)
Vaudreuil (Montérégie)
Almost every single one of those ridings is currently expected to flip or hold for the CAQ. Many of those where the CAQ is just a few points behind where a QS wave of support even going up only 3% could cause the rest to flip.
Do you think that the CAQ will benefit from vote splitting in Montréal & Laval?
0%Yes
0%No
Capitale-Nationale
Another area of concern for half the parties is the Capitale-Nationale Region. The CAQ is again the main center point for the party conflicts.
The Conservative Party of Québec is fighting very hard to win in Chauveau since their leader is running for the seat. It's currently held by the CAQ and went to the CAQ with a little over 47% in 2018 and the Conservatives got a bit under 9%. It's currently projected to go Conservative by about 40%.
Québec Solidaire is trying to keep the seats of Jean-Lesage and Taschereau. Jean-Lesage which went to QS with 35% over the CAQs 32% is currently projected to go to the CAQ with around 34%. Taschereau went to QS with under 43% and the CAQ got 19%. Canada Polling projects Taschereau as QS with around 37%
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