December 31, 2022
Canada Polling's year in review, for 2022 is now here! This post will highlight the predictions made throughout the year.
Athabasca - The Saskatchewan Disaster
Athabasca is one of 2 large northern Saskatchewan seats. It was also one of the only 2 NDP seats outside of Saskatoon or Regina in the 2020 election. Athabasca is the northwest seat.
Athabasca has a long recent history of going solidly orange. Before it went to the other major left-wing party the Liberals.
The riding always had a strong indigenous population and was very sparse. It was Liberal up until right before the death of the party in the mid-late 70s. When the party got a jolt of life in 1995 with Lynda Haverstock, Athabasca voters elected Buckley Belanger who served as their MLA up until his resignation in 2021 to run as the Liberal candidate in the federal riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River where he lost by a margin of 22% or 4,503 votes.
The by-election resulted in a massive upset for the Saskatchewan Party. Most major projections, including Canada Polling, had the NDP holding it by just a bit. My biggest highlight from the byelection was going to sleep with the NDP at a comfortable margin above the Saskatchewan Party only to wake up with all polls reporting, and a margin of almost 11% with a Saskatchewan victory. It will be interesting to see how this result will play for the next election in 2024 because turnout didn't even reach a quarter. The NDP will likely be able to take back the seat with a higher turnout but it's also just as likely that this is the next phase for Athabasca.
Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche - A perfect projection?
Fort-McMurray-Lac La Biche (FM-LLB) is a riding consisting of the southern 2/3rds of Fort McMurray and stretching south to Lac la Biche.
The riding and area have had a long history of going for the major right-wing party.
Fort-McMurray-Conklin and Fort-McMurray-Lac La Biche have clear trends that are easy to project. You can see the results in recent elections have a very clear trend. This riding is also one that flows with polls just enough to be able to project results very easily. I didn't start adding my predictions to the chart below until I had working and specific projections. You'll see them added later on.
Fort Whyte - Liberal Spike
The Fort Whyte Byelection was triggered by the resignation of Brian Pallister as Premier and MLA. The riding consists of a southwestern portion of Winnipeg and was one of the safest PC seats in the city.
Even through strong NDP governments which relied on Winnipeg swinging towards them, the area around modern Fort Whyte stayed strongly blue. The last time a significant portion of the modern-day riding went to a party other than the Progressive Conservatives was in 1988 when the southern third of the riding swung Liberal. Before that, the modern-day riding hasn't seen full non-PC representation since the late 40s when Winnipeg used Single Transferable Vote (STV) so it's safe to say that the PCs would have a cakewalk in the riding.
The Manitoba Liberals have a history of being weak in general elections and strong in byelections. I don't think anyone could've projected the Liberals getting so close to victory in this particular byelection though. This result is closely matched with the slump in polls and rising unpopularity with the PCs in Manitoba.
The byelection ended up with a tight victory for the PCs. Despite the riding's closeness in this byelection, I doubt it will hold despite the unpopularity of Heather Stefanson and her government. This prediction can be made based on the turnout. The byelection turnout ended up being above 42.6%. Good for a byelection but bad for Fort Whyte. Fort Whyte has seen turnout averaging around 60% in almost all previous general elections. Byelections in the riding have seen turnout in the low 40s like the one this year. Overall the Canada Polling projection of a PC hold was correct but the byelection ended up tighter than expected.
Marie-Victorin - Precursor to the General
The Marie-Victorin Byelection was triggered by the resignation of Catherine Fournier the Parti Québécois MNA for the riding from 2016-2021 to run for Mayor of Longueuil. She resigned from the PQ in 2019 to sit as an independent.
The seat was the only one in the Montreal area to stay for the PQ as the CAQ took government in 2018.
The riding has stayed for the PQ since 1985. Previously the area was somewhat of a Liberal-leaning bellwether. In the byelection, it was a tossup between the CAQ and PQ. Canada Polling projected a CAQ gain which was correct. The PQ lost by almost 5 points which represented their future collapse in the 2022 provincial election which is covered later in this post.
Vancouver-Quilchena - From one leader to another
Vancouver-Quilchena is a riding in southern Vancouver and one of the only in the Vancouver Metro that stayed Liberal in 2020. The seat was held by the former Liberal leader in that same election Andrew Wilkinson. In the 2020 election, a third of the Liberal caucus lost their seat causing Wilkinson to resign as leader and later resign as their MLA to allow their new leader Kevin Falcon to sit in the legislature.
The riding has stayed solidly red throughout its entire existence. Before it was created, Vancouver was split into larger districts that elected 2 or more MLAs based on the time. The area now consisting of Vancouver-Quilchena had a long history of almost always voting for the major right-wing party.
Again like most byelections with the same party history, it's quite easy to project in this seat and others. This was the first byelection with the updated byelection view which you will see below. The NDP had been rising in polls somewhat consistently and was seeing high favour with BC voters which corresponded with my projection of somewhat underestimating the Liberals. It was also the first byelection where myself and others noticed somewhat of a trend going on in byelections: the NDP does badly. First Athabasca caused a historic loss, despite their big rise in the polls they dropped in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, the same thing in Fort Whyte, and it now happening again in Vancouver-Quilchena. This could be explained by the low turnouts seen in byelections which have doomed parties everywhere. Vancouver-Quilchena typically sees turnout in the high 50s and low 60s but the turnout in the byelection was an abysmal 38%. Despite the low turnout and Liberals being underestimated the new BCLIB Leader Kevin Falcon was elected to the Legislature.
Ontario Provincial Election - FPTP Moment
In the 2018 provincial election, the Liberals collapsed leading to Doug Ford, brother of late Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, becoming Premier ending the 15 years of Liberal power in the province.
As the centre-left vacuum opened up Andrea Horwath, leader of the NDP for almost a decade, filled much of it forming official opposition, a first for the NDP since the 1987 election right before Bob Rae became premier.
Kathleen Wynne took the party from government to 3rd place, not even keeping official party status breaking a record for the worst result for the party ever in its 161-year existence and another for the worst result for an incumbent government in Ontario. She later resigned as leader of the party but kept her safe seat of Don Valley West.
The Greens also made history by electing their first MPP ever which was their leader who took the seat of Guelph away from the collapsed Liberals who dropped 31% and went to 4th in the riding.
The 2022 election resulted in much of the same seat results for the Liberals and Greens. The NDP dropped 7 seats and was beaten by the Liberals in the popular vote despite the Liberals only getting 8 seats. Very much a First Past The Post moment 23.9% of the vote and 6.5% of the seats. The PCs gained 7 seats and stayed similar in the popular vote.
The Canada Polling projection, like many others, predicted 3 things:
1. The PCs holding government
2. The PCs gaining seats
3. The Liberals returning to the legislature with party status
Only 2 of these things ended up turning out with the Liberals getting high general support across the province but just not enough to win and also, in many cases, preventing the NDP from winning. The projection made hinted at a much bigger Liberal gain, particularly in the suburbs of Toronto which was incorrect. This is tied to the turnout being the lowest in the history of the province just getting past 43.5%. Despite the challenges with the Liberals, Canada Polling had an accuracy of 106/124 seats or 85.5%.
Thompson - Hints for the provincial election
Thompson is a riding in northern Manitoba that encompasses the city of Thompson and with the recent provincial redistribution includes much of Churchill. The by-election was triggered by the death of their newly elected MLA Danielle Adams.
The riding trends NDP but has had some significant shifts to the PCs in its history.
With the bad history of the NDP in byelections, most expected the NDP to stay somewhat consistent in vote share, but with the Liberals and Greens, both not running candidates and the NDP campaigning extremely hard before the byelection date was even announced all not to mention the fact that the PCs continued slumping in the polls.
Miramichi Bay-Neguac & Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin - Major Screwup
These by-elections were triggered by their MLAs both resigning to run against each other in the federal riding of Miramichi-Grand Lake. Miramichi Bay-Neguac was represented by the Liberals, and Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin was represented by the Conservatives. In the federal showdown, the Conservatives ended up winning by a few points over the Liberals.
Since the 2014 redistribution, the Liberals and Conservatives held their respective seats up until the byelections, both around 40%. With the PCs slowly dipping in the polls and the Liberals going up it was easy to project that the status quo would either stay the same with 1 Liberal, and 1 PC, but our projection determined that both of them would go for the Liberals.
Miramichi Bay-Neguac ↑
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin ↓
Surrey South Byelection - Another Liberal underestimation
The Surrey South Byelection was triggered by their MLA resigning to become Canada's first Chief Accessibility Officer. It's one of the newest BC ridings only created in 2017 where it stayed Liberal throughout its history but shifted much more NDP in 2020.
The NDP gained in much of the Vancouver Metro in the 2020 election and the NDP was rising in polls for much of the time before the byelection. I expected the NDP to continue making gains based on the current circumstances and picking up this seat very slightly. The byelection results also hinted that the Conservative Party was going to reenter any sort of relevance in provincial politics in the province and potentially cause a vote split on the right in BC. The projection made was incorrect and hammered in the idea that the NDP had little to no chance in byelections. This is going to be a riding to watch in the next provincial election with the recent popularity of the NDP.
Conservative Leadership Race - A rally behind Pierre Poilievre
The Conservative Leadership Race was triggered by the removal of Erin O'Toole as leader of the party by their caucus. As soon as this news was announced it was pretty much ensured by everyone that Pierre Poilievre would run, and win overwhelmingly. The result ended up being just that, an overwhelming victory for Pierre Poilievre. He won 70.7% of the vote, and 68.2% of the points. He won 330/338 ridings. Jean Charest, former premier of Quebec, Deputy Prime Minister, and leader of the Federal Progressive Conservatives and Quebec Liberals, while also serving under several different ministries and long-time MP and later MNA for Sherbrooke. Despite this long and impressive record, Erin O'Toole was seen as too centrist for the Conservative Party and Charest's history as a Liberal Premier doomed him. During the debates, Charest tried to shift himself to the right, but there was no changing his record. In the first debate, it was already clear that Charest had no chance despite his claims of having the points to win. This moment during the first debate made it clear that Charest had no chance:
In the end, Charest was beaten badly. Most leadership races aren't as lopsided as this one was and many thought that most projections were overestimating Pierre and it's a fair argument considering how in the previous leadership race many expected Peter Mackay to win but he ended up losing by a couple of points (percentage points). I also anticipated the other leadership candidates to win their seats, but that ended up not happening. Some of the other incorrect seats like Nunavut were based on the previous leadership election result. Leslyn Lewis picked up the territory in the 2nd round and Leslyn Lewis' surprise in the last leadership race was expected to happen again but at a somewhat smaller scale. Even with some of these mistakes, the accuracy was still 316/338 or 93.5%.
Saskatoon Meewasin - Hope for the NDP?
Saskatoon Meewasin is one of the few remaining NDP seats in the city of Saskatoon. In a bad result for the NDP, this is one of the easiest that can be flipped. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the SASKNDP Leader Ryan Meili after a disappointing result of only gaining 3 seats.
As I said above, the NDP does typically hold this seat but has gone for the Saskatchewan and Progressive Conservative Parties in the past. The history graph covers the riding that usually held most of the modern-day area of the riding since areas east of the river were occasionally in Saskatoon Meewasin. Those east of the river ridings very often contained little of the modern-day riding.
The NDP history in byelections as I continue saying and showing you is not great. This by-election was different though which hints at potentially the polls being somewhat inaccurate. Polls have been showing the NDP at roughly 33%, and polls typically benefit the NDP so their staying roughly the same from the previous election and then doing well in a race they'd need to hold onto is a good sign despite all the others pointing to another disappointing loss for the SASKNDP. The Canada Polling projection hinted at a very slight victory for the NDP, which, while overall correct, the projection was off by almost 10 points because the result was so unexpected.
Québec Provincial Election - Legault's Dynasty Strengthens
Francois Legault, leader of the CAQ (Coalition Avenir Québec), was elected Premier in 2018 with a majority and wiping out the PQ (Parti Québécois) in much of the province, except the areas around the mouth of the St. Lawrence River. The Liberals were pushed back to their ring of support in some areas south of Montréal and on the islands.
2014 election↑
2018 election↓
The 2022 election saw the Liberals get pushed around even more as they were pushed so far that they only had their safest seats left. This was the party's worst result since 1956 when they won 20/93 seats. In this election, they got only 21/125. The PQ leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, ran in Camille-Laurin (formerly Bourget) which was the only CAQ loss in the Montréal Area.
The PQ was destroyed in the rest of Québec:
-Lost Bonaventure (PQ since 2012)
-Lost Duplessis (PQ since 1976)
-Lost Gaspé (PQ since 2012)
-Lost Joliette (PQ since 2008)
-Lost Jonquière (PQ since 2007)
-Lost René-Lévesque (PQ since 2003)
-Lost Rimouski (PQ since 1994)
The only seats they kept were:
-Matane-Matapédia (PQ since its creation in 2012)
-Îles-de-la-Madeleine (PQ since 2018)
Québec solidaire also had some shifts. They lost Royun-Noranda-Témiscamingue to the CAQ while gaining Maurice-Richard, and Verdun from the Liberals. Their core in Montréal, their hold on Sherbrooke, and Jean-Lesage (Québec City) was strengthened while their hold on Taschereau (Québec City) was slightly loosened. They even came close to knocking out Dominique Anglade, the Liberal leader, but she ended up outperforming practically all projections which had her either losing completely or winning by just a tiny amount.
The other big winner from the election was Éric Duhaime, he was crowned leader of the Québec Conservatives with 96% in their leadership race. He caused the party to shoot up in the polls, even getting to 2nd in some leading up to election day. He was expected to win the seat he was running in Chauveau (Part of Québec City), while also having a 50/50 chance of winning both Beauce seats. This would be the first time the Conservative Party would have representation in the National Assembly since 1936. The Conservative Party ended up losing all 3. Chauveau by an embarrassing 15 points, Beauce-Nord by over half a point, and Beauce-Sud by about 1.2 points.
My projections were more in-depth in this election. The first map shows if my projection for the winners was correct or not where I had an accuracy of 32/125 or 25.6%.
This map shows if my projection was within 5% of the actual result where my accuracy is 92/125 or 73.6%
This map shows my overall accuracy on if I projected the result correctly or not like previous accuracy maps. My accuracy was 118/125 or 94.4%
This Québec Election Map shows my projection with all the parties.
These final maps show worst-case and best-case scenarios for the CAQ.
Brooks-Medicine Hat - Danger for Wildrose?
The Brooks-Medicine Hat Byelection was caused by the resignation of Michaela Frey to allow for new Premier and UCP (United Conservative Party) Leader, Danielle Smith, to take a seat in the Legislative Assembly. Brooks-Medicine Hat is a large riding in southeastern Alberta, taking up the cities of Brooks, and the northern half of Medicine Hat.
The riding has only existed since 2019. In the 2015 election, the city of Medicine Hat went NDP while Cypress-Medicine Hat and Strathmore-Brooks went Wildrose. Those ridings and ridings before it have been almost completely unbrokenly gone for the farthest right-wing party. This by-election was interesting because it had 3 party leaders facing off against one another in a field of 5. The new Premier and UCP Leader ran for the seat against the former mayor of Brooks and leader of the Alberta Party Barry Morishita, and Jeevan Mangat leader of the Wildrose Independence Party, the new version of the Wildrose Political Association. Just like most people thought, with the Wildrose history in the riding, they would get at least some sort of significant slice of the vote but that turned out to not be the case.
Mississauga-Lakeshore - Pierre's Hell
I have already covered a lot of the Mississauga-Lakeshore by-election in this article linked but I didn't cover the results. The results ended up going much more to the Liberals than expected showing that Pierre is either having a bad winter or he is doomed in the GTA. An area that is necessary for forming a government.
Kirkfield Park - Liberals Blamed
The Kirkfield Park Byelection was caused by the resignation of Scott Fielding, a long-time city councillor in Winnipeg and provincial politician since 2016. As an MLA he served as Minister of Families, Civil Service Commission, Finance, and Natural Resources and Development. Kirkfield Park is in the west of the city of Winnipeg.
The riding has leaned heavily toward the PCs in its history and the NDP and Liberals have mirrored each other.
As said above and shown on the graph the Liberals and NDP mirror each other in the riding and many NDP supporters have said that the Liberals cost them the election and it's quite a fair argument. The PCs held the seat as expected by the Canada Polling projection but by much less than anticipated. The Greens also had much more of a fall than anticipated.
Looking Back
This was an amazing year for Canada Polling. We modernized, became significantly more active on several social media platforms, and grew our following by massive amounts. It was a great year. Thank you to the hundred or so active people and the much smaller amount reading up to this. Now that my thanks are done, here are the total accuracy numbers from byelections, general and leadership elections throughout 2022:
| Byelections | General/Leadership |
Correct Projections | 9 (69.2%) | 542 (92%) |
Incorrect Projections | 4 (30.8%) | 47 (8%) |
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