February 12, 2023
Ontario is the largest province with the most seats. In this redistribution cycle, they gained 1 seat going up to 122, even with this increase it's still the most unrepresented province with the highest population/electoral district of 116,590. It was expected that this map would be finished last and formally marks the end of the report phase of the map-making.
Proposal
Northern Ontario had one of the most significant shifts in the entire province. The most noticeable change was the creation of a special northern riding. The execution of that was not very good as the riding is barely accessible because it is so vast. The commission proposal also got some adverse reactions because of the deduction of a northern seat. Currently, Northern Ontario has 10 seats, in the proposal, it went down to 9. Northern Ontario is still overrepresented but less so compared to before. I have disagreements with the map such as the continued split of Thunder Bay but it's more of a personal preference.
If Northern Ontario had the same size ridings population-wise, then the map would look something like this, with 8 seats.
In Eastern Ontario, I'm relatively fine with most of the changes, like Northumberland forming a seat, and allowing Peterborough to be more centred around the city. The name change in Hastings-Lennox and Addington I like as it's representative of the indigenous population of the riding, although I don't like the shift into Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes. In southern Frontenac, the border between Lanark-Frontenac and Kingston and the Islands is cut off because of a massive wedge dividing them that belongs to Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes which doesn't make much sense. Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston had to cut the northern half off of Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes which I don't like especially because the new name doesn't take this new land into account into the name. A name like Lanark-Frontenac-Rideau Lakes would've been good.
I like the uniting of Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry United Counties but to make up for this Prescott and Russell had to stab into Ottawa weirdly and unnecessarily. Also, I wouldn't say I like the decision from the commission to bring Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke down into Ottawa, but I liked the name change to Algonquin-Renfrew-Pembroke.
Within Ottawa, I think the map was nicely drawn. However, it's largely personal preference in how I'd draw some ridings such as returning much of the southern edges of Nepean or making Kanata smaller with Carleton wrapping around it.
Central Ontario, easily had some of the most drastic, and simultaneously worst ridings on this map. From my experience making riding maps, it's clear that Central Ontario was not only the lowest priority from this commission but also likely one of the last areas they looked at. The focus on municipalities and communities of interest sticking together is completely gone in this map. The worst part about the complete lack of real thought in Central Ontario is that it's one of the fastest-growing regions in the province. No commissioners are from Central Ontario and it's extremely clear on this map.
Simcoe North is a riding that has existed since confederation and its name change to Penetanguishene-Couchiching reflects how much this commission knew about Central Ontario going into this. An exclusively Barrie-centred riding would've been nice to see as it can better accommodate the consistently high increases in population in Innisfil. The name change from Simcoe-Grey to Collingwood-Blue Mountains is possibly one of the most baffling name changes in this map as Collingwood and The Blue Mountains are right next to each other leaving 80% of the riding unrepresented. Dufferin's weird swaps are also unnecessary as it splits a municipality in the process. I don't like the split of York-Simcoe as York-Simcoe can exist if you cut out Holland Landing which saves the new riding of New Tecumseth-Bradford from needing to exist in this form. The name change to Lake Simcoe-Uxbridge is also quite disgusting as much of the riding is not in Uxbridge or touches Lake Simcoe. The borders of the riding are also questionable as they go from following municipal borders to following a highway twice on both sides of the riding. I find the barely existent justification for Lake Simcoe-Uxbridge quite lousy in the proposal.
I recognize the need to split ridings such as Simcoe-Grey but I disagree with how they did it, which is a theme across a lot of this province.
Within York Region, I think many of the changes make sense and I'm not opposed to the map in York Region although the border between New Tecumseth-Bradford and King-Vaughan not following the King border makes no sense to me or the commission as there's no reasoning for this change in the proposal. Quite a common theme throughout Central Ontario. In Durham because of how the municipalities are shaped and populated, the process of redistribution is difficult. Still, for a lot of the changes, I'm not too opposed, except for the weird shifting to put Oshawa in 4 different ridings when the population can fit 1 riding and half of another riding.
Toronto has slowed down the large population gains of the 70s but has been unable to keep up with the rest of the province, making them almost guaranteed to be the other specific area of the province to lose a seat. Scarborough was the area this seat was taken from but the population hasn't gotten imbalanced enough to allow for a full loss of 1 seat, leading to the commission's decision to split some of Scarborough between the Don Valley. Scarborough having to be combined with other areas of Toronto hasn't been the case since 1984. This is not needed though as Scarborough can not only fit into 5 ridings but also fits with the unofficial requirement from the commission to have a deviation below 10% in Southern Ontario (The official requirement is that ridings have a 25% deviation but the Ontario commission has done everything it can to make ridings in Southern Ontario within 10% of the deviation).
I think the other changes in the rest of Toronto are fine except I wish that Etobicoke had been more preserved and the Humber riding had moved into changing Etobicoke North to preserve York South-Weston.
Peel, I also think is fine but I am worried about the population gains in Brampton-Mayfield West.
Most of it is fine in the Waterloo-Wellington-Halton Region, as that is an area the commissioners know more about. The area has seen considerable population growth, particularly in Milton, Cambridge, and Guelph. Some changes I would've preferred would be a Milton-centred riding instead of it being split between the extremely Conservative areas around Georgetown-Milton East and the more Liberal areas around Burlington-Milton West. The riding of Kitchener South-North Dumfries could've been changed to make it more centred around the south of Kichener to allow for some relief on Kitchener-Conestoga and so that a split of Brant could be nicer.
The Hamilton-Brant Region is one area where the populations have grown just enough to cause problems with borders making it difficult to make a very clean map. The way they have divided the Hamilton area I think is well done although some Hamilton Centre got a big tail on the eastern end of the proposed riding which I find somewhat odd of a decision. Niagara West got a small portion of it ripped out and put into Hamilton East-Stoney Creek to form Hamilton-Stoney Creek-Grimsby Lakeshore. The inclusion of Lakeshore as a part of the name is not needed in my opinion as the map below clearly shows that it's as close to the water as it can get. The decision to carve up Brant into 3 different ridings is something I don't like, although I do like how Brantford is almost exclusively a single riding now.
In Niagara, I liked the decisions made by the commission, especially with the creation of Niagara South. I had a conversation with someone in St. Catharines about what area of the city should be cut out and the commission decided to cut out the southwest community of Western Hill but they had said that the southern part of St. Catharines would be a better area to cut out as it's more demographically similar to Niagara West compared to the more diverse Western Hill and suggested that Niagara Centre should instead cut north into St. Catharines.
The Midwest of Ontario and Oxford had little change except for a few municipality swaps. In Oxford, they lost their far western edges to Elgin-Middlesex-Thames and London Northeast, while they lost Tilsonburg to Haldimand-Norfolk-Six Nations. Oxford gained some of the western areas of Brant.
Most of Southwestern Ontario had minimal change. The most major change in the region was the collapse of Elgin-Middlesex-London and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex into 1 riding called Elgin-Middlesex-Thames. I'm indifferent to the changes in Southwestern Ontario as much of it is very similar politically and demographically. The change to Chatham-Kent-Leamington now including Kingsville, in my opinion, is really strange as Chatham-Kent-Leamington has a big population and that area of the province can be difficult to make into fairly populated ridings.
The changes in London were some of the most drastic in any of the smaller cities in Ontario, with the creation of 2 rurban ridings and 2 urban ridings. I'm very against rurban ridings but the riding of London South-St. Thomas in my opinion isn't as bad but London Northeast is an extremely random riding.
In Windsor, the ridings of Windsor West and Windsor-Tecumseh got more urban and had a few neighbourhood trades with each other. Generally one of the least controversial decisions of the commission.
Report
The Ontario report provided a lot of relief for Northern Ontario as populations across that region of the province were more balanced out.
My biggest concerns outlined in my section on Eastern Ontario in the proposal were largely reversed which is good. A weird part about this map in my opinion was the name change to Northumberland-Clarke even though much of the proposed Northumberland riding was moved to others. I like how Kingston and the Islands follow the city borders now. Luckily Eastern Ontario looks better now.
In Ottawa, unfortunately, the weird bump into Ottawa from Prescott-Russell stayed and the name added Cumberland to represent that part of the riding which is good. I'm glad Carleton wraps around Kanata so that Algonquin-Renfrew-Pembroke doesn't have to stretch so far south. Ottawa Centre extends past the Rideau River to take Riverside and Alta Vista, which I don't prefer and I'd rather the map look like the 2nd map included below.
In Central Ontario, the commission continues to lack on their protection for communities of interest. Still, at least the commission realized that municipalities don't need to be split a trillion times. The commission also had the revelation that Simcoe North and Simcoe-Grey have both existed for long periods and need to be protected. They also decided to preserve the ever-growing Barrie ridings but add North and South for questionable reasons I don't agree with. At least the commission didn't split King (as bad) by raising the border to the actual King border while New Tecumseth-Gwillimbury snatched the remaining parts of East Gwillimbury that were left east of the 404. Unfortunately, that means that York-Simcoe has not been remade and now York-Durham is in its place which is a better name. York-Durham also isn't a riding bounded by highways on most of its southern borders which is an improvement.
Much of Durham was returned to its current borders which helps drop the number of Oshawa MPs from 4 to 2. In York Region, notable changes are that Vaughan-Woodbridge now cuts into King-Vaughan in Vellore and not Nashville and that Markham-Thornhill is exclusively below the 407. Richmond Hill is now named Richmond Hill South which is not necessary since the borders barely changed from the current riding of Richmond Hill. This is a map of what a preserved York-Simcoe could look like.
I've already talked about my complaints about Scarborough and not much of Toronto changed in the report compared to the proposal. The biggest difference is that Humber is no longer a riding and York South-Weston-Etobicoke has taken its place.
Like Toronto, and Peel I'm also relatively fine,, although I share the continued worry that Brampton North-Caledon will balloon in population up to the next redistribution. Many of the other Brampton seats appear just to be cleaned up a bit. I also wished they had kept Mississauga-Meadowvale from the proposal instead of reverting to Mississauga-Streetsville.
In Halton, I like what they've done as Milton is more evenly split between the 2 ridings and I'm a supporter of Oakville East and West as it more fairly balances out how much of an effect new development will have.
In Waterloo and Wellington, I'm glad they made Cambridge larger and Kitchener South more urban in Waterloo and Wellington.
There's no way to ease into the horror of Brant but I am glad Brant is only in 2 ridings. The 2 ridings that it's split between are the problem though. Other than that, Hamilton is relatively uncontroversial.
The commission decided to keep St. Catharines split in the same area but Niagara South does extend up to St. Catharines. The decision to merge some of Haldimand into Niagara West was also reversed.
Many of the shifts and expansion of London were reversed meaning that Lambton-Kent-Middlesex was able to be reformed under the name Middlesex-London. I think these decisions are largely good I'm afraid I have to disagree with some of the specifics of what they did like shaving off the northern piece of London to put into Middlesex-London. I wish a southern London riding was created as that area is likely to see population gains in the future.
Luckily, many of the Essex changes like the swapping of Kingsville for no real reason and the increased urbanization of Essex because of the unnecessary border shifts were reversed.
Political Impact
Ontario is one of the most watched provinces in any campaign because of the diversity in politics in different regions. Overall this map doesn't change much about that. Noticeable differences are the Conservative takeover of the Niagara ridings, and the NDP doing much worse in Northern Ontario than one could expect.
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