December 6, 2022
The commissions for Saskatchewan and Manitoba have released their reports today and it's a mess. Saskatchewan and Manitoba both have a similar population overall. Saskatchewan has 80,893 people/electoral district and Manitoba with 95,868 people/electoral district. Both have 14 seats but the makeup of the provinces is much different. Manitoba has half its seats in the Winnipeg Metro and the other half in the rural parts of the province. Saskatchewan on the other hand has 8.5 rural seats and 5.5 urban seats around Regina and Saskatoon (Regina-Qu'Appelle is rurban aka a riding that has both urban and rural areas).
Proposals
Starting with Manitoba the proposal saw a lot of shifts in rural parts of the province although it didn't add up to much change apart from some ridings having weird panhandles and other odd shapes. Particularly the northeastern area of the proposed Portage-Lisgar had a lot of hate directed towards it.
In Winnipeg though there were shifts to create more rurban ridings. Particularly Winnipeg West which replaced Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley now extended very far into rural Manitoba and Elmwood-Transcona which shifted to follow a highway which led to the addition of a massive amount of rural land. Other than those changes though, Winnipeg didn't get many major shifts apart from some neighbourhoods switching ridings.
In Saskatchewan NDP supporters were ecstatic to find out they were likely going to pick up their first seat in the province federally since 2015 in Saskatoon with the creation of Saskatoon Centre. Liberals were also just as excited to see a less Conservative Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River after it was also given special status to have a smaller population to better represent the high indigenous population of the riding and its large size (Kenora and Labrador are other examples of this) which led to strongly Conservative areas in the south of the original riding being cut out.
Rural parts of the province also got large shifts with most ridings getting either longer or taller.
In Regina, the biggest difference was Regina-Qu'Appelle getting sliced almost in half creating a much more urban-centred riding along with minor shifts in the other 2 Regina ridings.
Saskatoon overall saw a massive rurban riding created in the north of the city obliterating the riding of Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek. The creation of Saskatoon Centre also made some Conservatives uneasy considering how rural residents would be left largely unrepresented in rurban ridings like Saskatoon-Wanuskewin.
Reports
The Reports undid a lot of the changes seen in the proposals which had a lot of negative reactions from people online, especially in Winnipeg and Saskatoon. In Manitoba, though, many municipality switches happened from the proposal to the report.
People were specifically put off by the rurbanization of Elmwood-Transcona and the shapeshifting of Winnipeg West.
Saskatchewan has faced a lot of suspicions from NDP supporters for their elimination of Saskatoon Centre. In Saskatchewan, overall, things shifted more to what the current map looks like and away from some of the longer ridings originally proposed.
Manitoba:
Current Riding | Proposal | Report |
Brandon-Souris | Brandon-Souris | Brandon-Souris |
Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley | Winnipeg West | Winnipeg West |
Churchill-Keewatinook Aski | Churchill-Keewatinook Aski | Churchill-Keewatinook Aski |
Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa | Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa | Riding Mountain |
Elmwood-Transcona | Elmwood-Transcona | Elmwood-Transcona |
Kildonan-St. Paul | Kildonan-St. Paul | Kildonan-St. Paul |
Portage-Lisgar | Portage-Lisgar | Portage-Lisgar |
Provencher | Provencher | Provencher |
Saint Boniface-Saint Vital | St. Boniface-St. Vital | St. Boniface-St. Vital |
Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman | Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman | Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman |
Winnipeg Centre | Winnipeg Centre | Winnipeg Centre |
Winnipeg North | Winnipeg North | Winnipeg North |
Winnipeg South | Winnipeg South | Winnipeg South |
Winnipeg South Centre | Winnipeg South Centre | Winnipeg South Centre |
Saskatchewan:
Current Riding | Proposal | Report |
Battlefords-Lloydminster | Battlefords-Lloydminster | Battlefords-Lloydminster-Meadow Lake |
Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek | Saskatoon-Wanuskewin | Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek |
Cypress Hills-Grasslands | Moose Jaw-Swift Current-Grasslands | Swift Current-Grasslands-Kindersley |
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River |
Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan | Kindersley-Rosetown | Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan |
Prince Albert | Prince Albert | Prince Albert |
Regina-Lewvan | Regina-Lewvan | Regina-Lewvan |
Regina-Qu'Appelle | Regina-Qu'Appelle | Regina-Qu'Appelle |
Regina-Wascana | Regina-Wascana | Regina-Wascana |
Saskatoon West | Saskatoon Centre | Saskatoon West |
Saskatoon-Grasswood | Saskatoon-Grasswood | Saskatoon South |
Saskatoon-University | Saskatoon-University | Saskatoon-University |
Souris-Moose Mountain | Souris-Moose Mountain | Souris-Moose Mountain |
Yorkton-Melville | Yorkton-Melville | Yorkton-Melville |
The politics of these provinces don't overall change with the overwhelming Conservative support in rural areas. Manitoba's map had no flips and the incumbents won with larger percentages than in the proposal. In Saskatchewan, though, the NDP loses their chance for a seat with the split of Saskatchewan Centre in the Report but the Liberals pickup Desnethé pick up-Missinippi-Churchill River which could cause conflict and an objection from Conservative MPs.
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